Shaping the future: Advancing assessment strategies to define the true quality of education

We work in curriculum, assessment, publishing, professional development and more. Across all our work, we take a system-level approach – thinking about how the different pieces of the education system fit together for the best impact on learning outcomes. This means we need to take a long-term view to consider and realise the positive impacts on students and society at large through education reform.

At the end of last year, we worked with the Digital Education Futures Initiative at Cambridge University to explore what assessment could look like in 2050. 

We used 'Futures Thinking' to explore a range of possibilities and to anticipate potential changes in the educational landscape. The use of Futures Thinking has become an increasingly important part of organisational planning in recent years. In times of rapid change and uncertainty, Futures Thinking provides organisations with methods to anticipate and manage disruptive change in situations in which past events and trends are unlikely to provide a reliable guide to the future.

This research brought together individuals from departments across Cambridge University and some partner organisations for three half day workshops, with homework in between. 

During the workshops, we took part in: 

• Horizon scanning – identifying ‘disruptors’ or ‘signals’ which indicate what the future could look like. 
• Using the Futures Triangle to unpack assumptions about the present. 
• Creating new perspectives on what we want in the future. 
• Imagining scenarios for multiple different futures grounded in evidence and data. 
• Coming up with a vision for our preferred future, and starting to plan towards it. 

As a result, we identified some key drivers likely to significantly change education over the next few decades: 

AI tutors and personalised learning 

One of the most powerful signals the group found was the emergence of AI tutors and personalised learning. Both require considerable investment to develop and maintain effectively. 

AI systems have the potential to accelerate learning and challenge geographical constraints in education. They can help address diverse learning needs. But they also come with big ethical questions. 

As learning shifts, this could also raise questions about the appropriateness of traditional assessments. Fortunately, advancements in technology are transforming assessment methods too. 

One of the biggest strengths of AI tools is the possibility of producing specific content quickly for use by teachers, publishers and assessment organisations.  It can also enable personalisation through a dynamic process of generating content as part of the learning process. This research from Cambridge English looks into the possibilities genAI offers for making language education more effective and more accessible than ever before.

Augmented, virtual and hybrid technologies 

Advancements in technology are transforming assessment methods. Learners in 2050 may well have always known a world in which AI use is a part of everyday life.

Augmented reality and wearable sensors are becoming more common. This could result in assessments becoming immersive, dialogue-based and interactive experiences. 

However, we need to be careful, as resource limitations could widen the digital divide too. 

Human flourishing and wellbeing 

Covid exposed vulnerabilities in the way high-stakes assessments operate around the world. It emphasised the need to ensure assessment is part of a landscape which considers personalisation and holistic learning. 

The end of the lockdowns did not lead to a return to normal. In many countries, school attendance has remained poor after the pandemic,and there is greater discussion around wellbeing and assessment.

To support teachers identify what rich and holistic education entails, we have developed a simple conceptual framework which is grounded in evidence about what is really important to learners’ educational success could help school leaders and teachers to make informed decisions, whichever educational philosophy or goals they choose to adhere to. Our Cambridge Learner Profiles articulate the insights that teachers can gain from different types of educational assessment and evaluation. 

Advances in technology, such as data-gathering, computer-adaptive designs and AI raise the possibility that ‘stealth’, continuous and collaborative assessments could be a bigger part of the assessment picture in the future. This could reduce student anxiety and exam pressure too.

Climate change 

Climate change is likely to be a defining factor in the future of assessment. 

Its impacts, including environmental disasters, economic consequences, and political shifts, all contribute to increased global instability with the potential to disrupt schooling and affect student wellbeing. 

The World Economic Forum estimates that, already, more than 40 million children have their education disrupted each year by the effects of climate change. With the climate crisis worsening, we need to adapt. We need to pre-empt future shocks. 

This could lead to the need for flexible, location-independent assessments. Digital learning platforms could well become vital, allowing displaced and migratory students to continue their education. 

However, climate-related delays in digital transition may create educational inequalities. 

There is scope for positive humanitarian responses and work with governments to develop systems of resilient and mobile assessment. These might include integrating formative assessment for learning into digital learning platforms which can travel with people who migrate within or between countries, being recognised internationally. 

One example of this work in practice today is our pilot project with the Ukrainian Ministry for Education to develop learning maps and digital learning records for displaced learners. The learning maps compare the curriculum of a country hosting refugees to the curriculum of Ukraine to support temporary integration of Ukrainian students into other systems, and smoother reintegration to a Ukrainian system after the war is over.

Digital learning and assessment like ‘cloud-based’ individual learning data profiles available via satellite links and collaborative digital classrooms might support mobile, displaced, and migratory students to continue learning. They could also help children maintain links with friends and family, as well as their linguistic and cultural identities. This would hugely support student and teacher wellbeing.

A vision for 2045 

In addition to identifying these key drivers, our research created preferred visions of 2050. 

We then used ‘backcasting’ – working backwards from the vision to the present - to see how we could get there. 

We imagined a 2045 where “Global education adopts AI tutors. Almost all assessments are digital and augmented reality, virtual reality and hybrid tech are standard. Educators and health professions collaborate to promote learner wellbeing and schools have climate-resilient infrastructures in place.” 

If this is what we want, we need to be increasing research and awareness now to get there. We need to be piloting AI tutoring, personalized learning, and climate-resilient systems by 2030. 

We need to see global adoption just five years after that, and expansion five years after that. To enable this, we need significant collaboration between partners across sectors. 

You can read the full Futures of Assessment report here. 

If you’d like to get in touch to discuss how we can support you with education reform, please email us on partnership@cambridge.org